Book refundable first, then wait for the price to drop

Most flight-booking advice is about finding the best price once. The better strategy is sequencing: lock in flexibility first, then let time work for you.

The four-step loop

1. Set price alerts for routes that match your actual available dates — not a single ideal date, a window.
2. Book a refundable flight immediately, using points or a card credit. This is your safety net, not your final answer.
3. Find your real price threshold by checking what the route has actually cost in the last 60 days — not what you wish it cost.
4. Watch for drops. Rebook the moment you find something better. The refundable booking means rebooking is free optionality, not a gamble.

The trick that makes this work is step 2. Most people either book once and stop looking, or keep searching and never lock anything in — both leave value on the table. A refundable hold removes the anxiety that makes people book too early, so the waiting in step 4 is actually comfortable instead of stressful.

Two cheap mistakes to avoid

Only searching one-way when you need one-way. Round-trip pricing on most carriers isn't 2x one-way — European carriers often price one-way at 80-100% of round-trip, so the return leg is nearly free optionality once you're pricing round-trip anyway. Always compare both before committing to a one-way.

Searching by airport code instead of metro. "SFO" misses Oakland and San Jose. Searching the city name instead pulls every airport serving that metro — on a Bay Area search, that's roughly 3x the inventory for the same trip.

Neither of these takes extra time. They just change which box you type into.

— Scion Labs